Thursday, February 11, 2010
Germany...it's time to redeem your past.
Amid all the turbulence surrounding the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) the world is looking unto Germany to lend a helping hand. Will Germany oblige? Should it? Why should it? Will France and UK be happy if Germany helps? The answers to these questions are not going to be easy and we’ll delve into the depths of the 20th century to search for any.
Germany historically has always been singled out in the past as the bad boy in international politics. It all began with the First World War and the restrictions thereby imposed on Germany led to the Second. This probably would be the first time in history when the entire world is looking unto Germany to be the elder brother and spare some cash for the troubled boys. Now the first question to be asked is if whether Germany itself is in a position to help out or it itself is on a wrong footing. Germany is the largest economy in the European Union and 5th largest in the world. It is the leading exporter of automobiles and machinery. Unable to develop its military resources after the 2nd world war Germany invested heavily in developing technology and infrastructure. All has have enabled Germany to generate huge trade surpluses amounting to Euro 165 billion. So Germany definitely is in a position to help out any of the smaller countries.
Germany, however would not want to be seen as a philanthropic donor of its hard earned tax money and rightly so it would seek greater dominance and voice in the European Union and piggyback the Union to raise a strong global voice. This is where the catch is. Would France and UK approve of German dominance in the Euro Zone? Would they want a strong Germany helping out others or would they want a rather subdued Germany and failed PIIGS states in the Euro zone? The answer could lie in the time the Union is taking to come out with a decision for this is the first time German get to negotiate hard ball with the crown and responsibility of big brother on its shoulders.
Failed PIIGS states would be in neither of the countries interests as the Euro, which was until recently touted as the global reserve currency replacing the dollar would take a disastrous hammering from international speculators. And this is how international speculation works. Every bank in the US was beaten down last year irrespective of whether it held Credit Derivatives or not. Similarly speculators are going to pull out the balance sheets of each of the other economies one after the other. It is just unfortunate that Greece happened to be the first and all of the other countries together got an acronym as bad as “PIIGS”. Interesting times lie ahead. The world was watching you Germany during the Wars and it is still watching you, it may just be your day under the sun. It’s time to redeem your destiny. ¶ 2:34 AM
Germany historically has always been singled out in the past as the bad boy in international politics. It all began with the First World War and the restrictions thereby imposed on Germany led to the Second. This probably would be the first time in history when the entire world is looking unto Germany to be the elder brother and spare some cash for the troubled boys. Now the first question to be asked is if whether Germany itself is in a position to help out or it itself is on a wrong footing. Germany is the largest economy in the European Union and 5th largest in the world. It is the leading exporter of automobiles and machinery. Unable to develop its military resources after the 2nd world war Germany invested heavily in developing technology and infrastructure. All has have enabled Germany to generate huge trade surpluses amounting to Euro 165 billion. So Germany definitely is in a position to help out any of the smaller countries.
Germany, however would not want to be seen as a philanthropic donor of its hard earned tax money and rightly so it would seek greater dominance and voice in the European Union and piggyback the Union to raise a strong global voice. This is where the catch is. Would France and UK approve of German dominance in the Euro Zone? Would they want a strong Germany helping out others or would they want a rather subdued Germany and failed PIIGS states in the Euro zone? The answer could lie in the time the Union is taking to come out with a decision for this is the first time German get to negotiate hard ball with the crown and responsibility of big brother on its shoulders.
Failed PIIGS states would be in neither of the countries interests as the Euro, which was until recently touted as the global reserve currency replacing the dollar would take a disastrous hammering from international speculators. And this is how international speculation works. Every bank in the US was beaten down last year irrespective of whether it held Credit Derivatives or not. Similarly speculators are going to pull out the balance sheets of each of the other economies one after the other. It is just unfortunate that Greece happened to be the first and all of the other countries together got an acronym as bad as “PIIGS”. Interesting times lie ahead. The world was watching you Germany during the Wars and it is still watching you, it may just be your day under the sun. It’s time to redeem your destiny. ¶ 2:34 AM
Post a Comment